I know everyone can use a little good news. I had the good fortune to attend the Greater Houston Builders Association mid-year forecast luncheon this week. The guest speaker was Dr. Mark Dotzour [Real Estate Economist].
I’ve been reading Dr. Dotzour’s reports and interviews for the last 2 years and I have been very impressed with the accuracy of his observations and his vision with regards to the Houston Real Estate market and our economy. Hearing him speak live did not disappoint. I thought I would share my notes from the Dr’s speech.
Title/Theme: CLEAR SAILING AHEAD
States with most employment growth in 21st century:
Texas 2.1 million Jobs
California 2.0 million Jobs
Florida 1.8 Million Jobs
States with least job growth in 21st Century
Affordable housing is the #1 economic challenge we face in this country today.
6 to 6.5 month’s inventory on MLS represents a balanced Real Estate Market, in that environment you should expect 2% -4% appreciation.
Since the 2016 Presidential Election the United States Business Community “Has been on Fire”
Do not listen to the media as they are only full of “gossip and propaganda” and their purpose is solely to sell advertising
We are in one of the longest economic expansions in our history, last year’s tax cuts will only prolong this expansion. Comparisons were made to the early 60’s and a JFK tax cut that had similar impact.
The Tax Cut at the peak of the market will allow it to continue to grow.
What could stop the growth? “The Federal Reserve” “and they are very good at stopping growth”
We are seeing not only job growth but also wage growth. What happens when more Americans have jobs and higher wages? “no one can outspend an American”
More on the media: Media is only focused on BAD news. “If they did good news all day long, no one would watch them.”
Trade Wars: We need jobs more than we need cheap stuff. We have been running trade deficits with countries like Japan and China for decades and it is not a good strategy. They get jobs, we get cheap stuff [electronics, cars, clothes]. Job growth is preferable to cheap stuff. Expect to pay a little more for some things.
We are at full employment and we will need more “legal “immigration for our economy to continue to grow.
Biggest threats to our continued economic growth:
- Short term interest rate increase
- Long term interest rate increase
- Oil prices above $100 barrel for an extended period [most likely result of conflict/war in ME]
Mortgage rates are determined by 10-year treasury notes, not the Federal Reserve.
Back to employment:
We are at full employment, a labor shortage could stop/hinder growth
Trucking industry is feeling it now. Shortage of drivers and equipment is driving transportation costs higher.
The final warning from Dr Dotzour was regarding the Federal Debt Balance. He warned that if the government pursues several infrastructure projects without a “dedicated source of funds” it would add to the National Debt and eventually cause too much inflation.
Noteworthy* Dr Dotzour stated several times, he belongs to neither the Republican or Democratic parties and he also stated he did not vote for our current President. He said that at 64 years of age he basically calls it like he sees it, and he is not worried if people don’t like what he says.
The speech was both interesting and entertaining. We are proud to be doing our part toward providing affordable, quality housing in the Houston and Albuquerque areas. We would love to show you how you can take part in this too!