Greater Houston Partnership monthly report was recently released. Let me give you some of the highlights:
The downturn in the oil industry is finally over. More companies are reporting profits than losses. Fewer firms are filing for bankruptcy. Oil now trades above break-even cost for most producers.
- Houston has now completed its fifth energy downturn in the past 40 years. The other four occurred from ’82–’86, ’90–’91, ’01–’02 and ’08–’09. The most recent downturn was on par with the ’80s for energy but not for the region as a whole. In the ’80s, oil prices fell 60 percent; in the most recent recession they fell 76 percent. In the ’80s, the rig count fell 83 percent, in the recent downturn it fell 79 percent. But the ’80s were far worse for Houston because the energy collapse coincided with widespread bank failures, and the implosion of the local real estate market. 3 In contrast, over the past five years the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has rescued only one Houston-area bank. And although Houston office market is vastly overbuilt, the industrial, retail, multi-family and single-family sectors fare quite well. One final comparison: In the ’80s, Houston lost 221,000 jobs, one in every seven. In the most recent downturn, Houston lost 5,000 jobs, or one in every 600.
- Robust growth has finally returned to Houston. The region is creating jobs at the fastest pace in almost five years. New home sales remain brisk. Sales tax collections have recovered. Customs district and airport traffic continues to grow. The only clouds on the horizon are related to global trade. But after four years of being a burden, the energy sector has once again begun to contribute to the region’s prosperity.
Houston’s growth will outpace nation’s and the state’s over the next five years. That’s the latest forecast by Ray Perryman, the Waco-based economist who has studied the U.S., Texas and metro economies since the ’70s.
According to Perryman:
• Houston’s economy will grow 4.11 percent annually over the period, compared to 4.01 percent for the state and 2.89 percent for the nation. The figures are adjusted to account for inflation.
• Employment will grow 2.14 percent in Houston versus 2.05 percent for the state and 1.55 percent for the U.S.
The longer-term outlook is more impressive.
- Houston’s economy will nearly double in size over the next 20 years. The region will add nearly 2.6 million residents, more than 1.3 million jobs, and $650 billion in personal income. Even after accounting for inflation, Houston’s prospects look good, with real Gross Regional Product growing 89.3 percent, real personal income 102.5 percent, and retail sales growing 98.2 percent over the next two decades.
For the 12 months ending June ’18, metro Houston created 94,600 jobs, a 3.1 percent increase―a significant jump from the 81,200 jobs created in the 12 months ending May ’18.
The impact all this is having on us is simple. Our biggest challenge has become finding inventory of lots to build new construction on as well as existing properties to rehab. There is a very real need for rental properties in Houston and as you can see from the report, that is not likely to abate for the next 20 years.
What are you waiting for? Get your investment launched. Take your rental portfolio to a new and better place! Invest with the best Turnkey Provider and Property Management company in the Nation’s best economy with the lowest cost of entry. We still have available inventory, but it is going fast. Don’t wait and be disappointed.